Diary of a Punter: Backing Chelsea to get back to winning ways

Last weekend proved an extremely profitable one for me and the column, Middlesbrough duly obliged on the “Draw No Bet” market, thrashing Charlton 4-1 at the Valley.

Onto Sunday and the 15/1 (16.0) double was in with a serious chance when Yohan Cabaye put Newcastle ahead, but a sublime finish from Luis Suarez scuppered that. The double chance bet returned a healthy profit, though, meaning I was £31 up for the weekend.

This time around I’ll be keeping it relatively simple; two bets in the match odds market on teams that I think should prove too much for their opposition.

Bet 1: Crystal Palace to beat Peterborough at 7/5 (2.40)

At time of writing the 7/5 (2.40) available is an industry best price on the Eagles, and I think they’re still be a little undervalued here against a Peterborough side who’ve fallen back into a habit of conceding late goals and are now back in the relegation zone.

Darren Ferguson’s men secured back-to-back wins against Derby and Huddersfield, two decent Championship sides, and looked like they might pull clear of danger, but losses to Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton have done enough to convince me that Crystal Palace are good value.

Ian Holloway swapped Blackpool for Palace and oversaw a 5-0 drubbing of Ipswich in midweek, a result that puts the south London club top of the table going into the weekend.

They were rated as even money (2.0) to produce that result and for them still to be available at such a generous price considering the morale, talent and form they’re on – nine wins in 12 games – they make plenty of appeal at such a price. I’ll snap up £10’s worth of that 7/5 (2.40) .

Bet 2: Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 10/11 (1.91)

I opposed Liverpool last week and I’m yet to see anything to discourage me from doing so again. Brendan Rodgers will have a day less to prepare his already-thin squad for this Premier League game and his side will also have the extra burden of travelling back from Russia, unlike Chelsea, who host Shakhtar on Wednesday evening.

That’s only one part of the story though, Chelsea’s record at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League has seen them win four of their five matches this season, and albeit they weren’t again the most illustrious opposition, this is still a tough game for any side.

The Blues were well in the game against Manchester United too until Mark Clattenburg stole the headlines so I’m not letting that result put me off.

They are a match for anyone in the division, let alone a Liverpool team struggling to find goals and points so far this season.

The Reds’ away record has seen a loss at West Brom, draws at Everton and Sunderland and a win at Norwich in the Premier League, and Chelsea will be keen to keep pace with Manchester United after dropping points at Swansea last Saturday.

For me, Roberto Di Matteo has the bigger, more talented squad, home advantage and an extra day’s rest for his side. The combination of those factors mean I’ll be putting another £10 on Chelsea getting three points on Sunday afternoon at 10/11 (1.91) .

Win a free £20 bet

We also had a winner of the Paddy Power free £20 bet as Dermot Lally correctly predicted that Ipswich would beat Birmingham City. Congratulations to him!

To win this week’s £20 free bet just email your best tip for the weekend with the word “20BET” in the subject line.

Be it a well-priced single, an ambitious multiple or any other bet available in all of Paddy Power’s football markets around the world for games taking place from 10th – 11th November.

Just send in your selection (one entry per reader), the price available at Paddy Power, and include “20BET” in the subject line before midday on Saturday to enter. Good luck!

Entry is open until midday on Saturday so get your emails in early to ensure your tip is counted.

Diary of a Punter: Jim’s Selections this week

Balance at the start of the week: £514.25
Profit for the season: £14.25

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Jim Knight is Betting Editor at Goal.com and has been tipping football games since he was old enough to place a bet. He is a Leicester City fan, writer and member of the We Are Going Up Podcast

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