Swansea City’s visit to Anfield will have more of an edge to it than most Capital One Cup ties this week, given the links between the two clubs.
Brendan Rodgers’ defection from south Wales to Merseyside in the summer means the Swans will be desperate to show their former manager they are still a capable unit without him, although their results this season so far speak volumes, with the side sitting a point and a place above Liverpool in the Premier League.
The Anfield club’s underwhelming start to the campaign means a decent showing this evening is vital and expect Rodgers to field a relatively strong side. Bet365 have certainly factored that into their analysis and price a home win at 4/9 (1.44) while Swansea are offered at 7/1 (8.00) and the draw can be backed at 16/5 (4.20).
Since their opening day demolition of QPR at Loftus Road, Swansea have struggled on the road, losing all three of their subsequent away games in the Premier League.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have won only one of their five league matches at Anfield this season – failing to score on two occasions.
If neither side is in great form, then neither side will want to lose and a tight match could well be in prospect.
Under 1.5 goals in the first-half at 1/2 (1.50) looks highly likely given that it has paid out in every home
match that Liverpool have played in the Premier League this season, but the price means it will only attract punters looking to invest for a modest return.
Instead, back the draw at half-time at 6/4 (2.50) which looks like a much more attractive option. This bet has paid out in three of Liverpool’s last five home games, as well as in Swansea’s last away match at Manchester City.
For a value bet try backing the first goal to come between 61-70 minutes at 18/1 (19.00). Swansea’s last five matches have seen four goals scored during the period and for a small value punt it could prove profitable.
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports broadcaster working on radio and TV in London and Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.