Pete Nordsted: Backing two close games on Sunday afternoon

This Sunday sees a couple of very interesting Premier League fixtures with Everton taking on Liverpool in the Merseyside derby and table-topping Chelsea hosting Manchester United.

There is a distinct feeling that there could be a major shift of power on Merseyside this season and David Moyes’ Everton side are in great form at the moment, especially at home where they have won nine of their last 11 home matches.

Amongst these victories they have beaten both Manchester City and United along with current league leaders Chelsea.

Liverpool on the other hand have been struggling to get into gear this season and there is no question about it, looking at the general stats, Everton are very good value to win this game.

Although the Toffees are the form side at the moment, recent head-to-heads at Goodison suggest that when facing their neighbours Everton tend to lose their nerve and the recent record reads one win for David Moyes’ side, no draws and four Liverpool wins.

Brendan Rodgers will be hoping the home hoodoo continues but the value looks to be backing Everton on the Asian Handicap +0 goals at 39/40 (1.98) . This is similar to “Draw no Bet” where your stake will be refunded if the match finishes level.

Another interesting stat is that four of the recent five head-to-heads have seen two or fewer goals, and also in their last nine away matches to teams of Everton’s stature, both teams have scored in only two of Liverpool’s last nine away games.

Combining these two stats, the under 2.5 goals market looks a reasonable play at 17/20 (1.85) .

In the match at Stamford Bridge Roberto Di Matteo will be hoping his Chelsea side can keep up their very strong home record against the Premier League elite which reads won seven, drawn two and lost one.

The Blues also have a very good home record when hosting Sir Alex Ferguson’s side with the record reading three Chelsea wins, two draws and no win for Manchester United.

The second half to be the highest scoring looks to be the best play here though, as when facing teams of similar stature, seven of both sides’ respective last 10 home and away matches have seen most goals scored in the second period.

The second half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 19/20 (1.95) and this looks to offer some good value.

Everton v Liverpool
Chelsea v Manchester United

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