JD’s Betting Blog: Analysing blind spots in the market and weekend tips

It has been a fantastic week and the return of the Champions League and the European competition has certainly added more enjoyment to our betting.  

The highlight of the week was probably the Real Madrid v Manchester City match which ended in late drama as Jose Mourinho’s team eventually overcame the English Champions 3-2.

It puts them firmly in the driving seat to win the group and the 10/11 (1.91) as highlighted last week about winning the group looks good business now. We also successfully backed Arsenal team goals over 1.5 at 7/5 (2.40) as they beat Montpellier 2-1.

Market “blind spots”

The betting markets can throw up anomalies or blind spots now and again and it is up to us to take advantage of them.

For example, Liverpool in the Premier League. They finished eight last season and have started the season slowly yet tend to attract a lot of support in the betting markets and be much shorter prices than they should be.

When they hosted Arsenal a couple of weeks ago, they were backed into 10/11 (1.91) before kick off despite only winning four of their previous 17 Premier League home games.

It followed a trend from last season when they were backed into abnormally short odds in the run up to games. Liverpool are essentially priced up and supported in the market like they are a top four team.

The reality is that their form and results are more mid table. It means we can get value in backing against Liverpool, either outright or using handicap or double chance markets. In their last 14 league matches, if you backed the other team to avoid defeat against Liverpool, you would have made a profit on 11 of those occasions.

Weekend Tips

Looking ahead to the weekend, in the Premier League, there are two big games on Sunday with Manchester United visiting Anfield and Manchester City hosting Arsenal.

At a general price of 10/11 (1.91) on the Draw No Bet market, Manchester United seem worthy of support given Liverpool’s poor home form.

On Friday night in the Bundesliga, Nurnberg should be backed in the team goals market at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. Both sides have started the season impressively but the form of Nurnberg seems more sustainable and over 1.5 home goals is Even money (2.00) .

In La Liga, Athletic Bilbao v Malaga is an eye catching fixture which looks to have goals in it. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 17/20 (1.85) .

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