A disappointing weekend after my last post saw several results eat into the punting profits but there’s a full domestic calendar this week and I’m hopeful of rebuilding the profit tally.
Don’t forget there’s a great free bet offer from Paddy Power with £20 up for grabs each week. All you have to do is email your best tip for the matches taking place between 15th and 17th September to firstname.lastname@example.org with “WinPaddy” in the subject line.
We’ve had a few smaller sized winners so far this season so your selection doesn’t have to be a huge winner, you never know, you could have £20 extra in your bankroll just for sending an email.
Sunderland to win “Draw No Bet” v Liverpool at 5/4 (2.25) with Paddy Power
Liverpool being priced at 5/4 (2.25) to beat Sunderland away is a price that seems to take these teams more on name and reputation than anything else.
Martin O’Neill’s pedigree in the Premier League is beyond question and although they still look a bit light going forward, he’s strengthened Sunderland significantly in the last couple of months, in particular the additions of Adam Johnson and Steven Fletcher.
They showed against Arsenal that they’re able to keep things tight at the back and i’d expect them to have a similar gameplan, albeit they now have a better chance of getting a result.
Brendan Rodgers’ side travelled to West Brom on the opening day of the season and were beaten 3-0, and despite raising their game against Manchester City, defensive errors cost them and against Arsenal their weaknesses were once again exposed.
I’m concerned that there isn’t enough quality going forward for them to be able to keep pace with the best teams in the division. Their form on the road last season doesn’t indicate they should be so short in the betting either; losing 10 of their 18 matches away. The “Draw No Bet” market interests me here at 5/4 (2.25) so it’ll be a £10 play on that market.
Yeovil and Draw (Double Chance) v MK Dons at 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power
This is a game in which it seems the visiting side are undervalued. MK Dons were pre-season favourites for promotion and although they do have a decent squad and a good manager in Karl Robinson, a win against Yeovil side who’ve started the season in great form isn’t assured.
The hosts have won both their games at Stadium mk this season but back-to-back losses on the road against Northampton and Walsall highlight their issues.
Yeovil lost to Bournemouth last time out but have started the season in great form, winning three matches.
What’s more, they clearly don’t fear an away day, they have seen off Brentford and Scunthrope on their travels as well as a 3-0 win over Bristol Rovers in the Football League Trophy, scoring 10 goals and conceding just once in that time. While a victory may be beyond them at 4/1, the Double Chance at 10/11 (1.91) is worth £10 of my betting bankroll.
Gillingham to win v Bristol Rovers at 8/11 (1.73) with Paddy Power
The Gills let me down when I backed them to win two weeks ago but I’m going to keep faith in Martin Allen’s men at 8/11 (1.73) against Bristol Rovers.
The home side are flying high, four wins and a draw in League Two see them top of the pile ahead of this weekend’s fixtures and in Danny Kedwell they have an experienced striker who is in fine form. They’ve built a team which is well equipped at this level to make a serious promotion charge.
The visit of Bristol Rovers should be a winnable game too, Rovers are yet to register a win and have managed just two points from four league games so far. A 2-2 draw against Aldershot – themselves a side in the bottom six – would suggest it will take a significant improvement in performance for the visitors to take anything from this game and 8/11 (1.73) seems a fair enough price to place £10 on.
Diary of a Punter: Jim’s Selections this week
Balance at the start of the week: £504.50
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Jim Knight is Betting Editor at Goal.com and has been tipping football games since he was old enough to place a bet. He is a Leicester City fan, writer and member of the We Are Going Up Podcast
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